Simply Alpha Capital
SIMPLY ALPHA CAPITAL
US Sweepstakes Casino Promotion Cost Simulator

What will this promotion cost?

Enter your offer and your rules. The tool follows every bet of 10,000 players from the offer to cash-out and shows the cost — and the risk in it — at four redemption gates.
A

Your offer

Choose what to test, then enter the terms exactly as you run them.
Bonus offerBonus SC
Free SC from an affiliate offer or promotion.
Welcome packagePremium SC
Any package that gives SC for a price — a welcome offer or a bonus package. Gold Coins are for reference only and are not used in any cost.
B

Your rules

Apply to every offer. Every cost below is calculated under these rules. Orange values are Setup defaults, marked "assumed" until you type your own.
Games and playthrough
CategoryAvg RTP %Counts toward playthrough %Volatility ×
Slots
Table games
Regular games
Volatility = standard deviation of one spin, in bets (low 1.5×, medium 4×, high 8×). Counts 10% = "10×" (ten units wagered per unit of credit); 0% = playable but counts nothing toward the counter. Regular games: crash, dice, mines, plinko.
One wallet, one counterThe counter starts at coins × playthrough. Every wager counts against it; winnings stay in the wallet and carry no playthrough of their own. When the counter reaches zero the whole balance — coins and winnings — is redeemable. A top-up adds its own coins × your package playthrough.
Top-ups What a regular player buys at bust to get over the gate. Edge players never buy. Top-ups are Premium SC, so they carry your Premium SC playthrough. $1 = 1 Premium SC · no bonus
Affiliate cost Your affiliate deal. Real dollars paid to the affiliate. Enter both — the results show what each way costs.
CPA is paid only on a player's first purchase (FTD). Revenue share is a % of purchases minus SC paid out, never below zero. Ad spend is not part of this tool — add your own cost per signup to the result.
Fees, budget, players
C

Cost of this offer

Cost per player claimed
Campaign total
Likely range (9 in 10 campaigns)
Chance of going over budget
Cost per paying player
Free coins
Affiliate (CPA way)
Fees
The same campaign total divided by all players claiming, then by first-time purchasers. Compare the second number with what a paying player is worth to you over time.
GateIf everyone cashed outEdge playerRegular playerYour mix
Can withdraw
Edge player — plays the cheapest route through playthrough, bets boldly, withdraws at the first chance and plays on any locked coins; never buys. Regular player — your game mix and bet mix; keeps playing, tuned to your normal hold; may buy a top-up at bust. Your mix — assumption: edge share by gate and buy share from Setup. Totals include fees and the affiliate CPA. Positive = cost to the casino; negative = casino ahead.
Levers
Your offer rerun with one change at a time. Saving per player against the cost as entered. A negative saving is a cost.
Cost by edge-player shareTotal per player at the detail gate. Every mix, so no single assumption decides the answer. Highlighted = the assumed default.
Cost by share of regular players who buyNobody knows how many busted players buy. Left end: nobody buys. Right end: every busted regular player buys up to the spending limit.
D

The player journey

E

The cost: three outputs

Per player at the detail gate. The edge player is the casino's worst case.
Cash in, cash out
Per player · campaign
Every top-up sold also gives out SC and new playthrough — its redemptions are included above. Cost = what players can withdraw + fees + affiliate − cash in.
Where the SC went
Expired SC cost nothing, but they are a wasted asset: coins players walked away from or left locked.
Where the model sent players
PlayerSlotsTableRegularRTP they got
Affiliate cost — each wayYour mix at the detail gate. Cheaper way highlighted.
Edge player by bet sizeCoin cost per edge player at the detail gate. Only bet sizes he can afford with his starting balance.
BetAverageMedianStd dev9 in 10 betweenCan withdraw
Why the simple math is wrong
If every player cashed out: Simulated (your mix):